Federal Reserve Rate Decision Odds — Live Data (Updated every 5 min)
UTC · Kalshi + Polymarket · JSON
Answer: Kalshi implies 99.0% and Polymarket implies 95.65% on comparable macro sentiment (spread 3.35pt).
| Source | Implied yes % |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 99.0% |
| Polymarket | 95.65% |
Current cross-venue spread: 3.35pt (Kalshi 99.0% vs Polymarket 95.65%) — comparable macro sentiment, not 1:1 contracts.
Kalshi markets
| Implied % | Market | Ticker | Yes bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T6.00 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T5.75 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T5.50 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T5.25 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T5.00 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T4.75 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T4.50 | 0.0300 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27MAR-T6.00 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27MAR-T5.75 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27MAR-T5.50 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27MAR-T5.25 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27MAR-T5.00 | 0.0100 / 0.9900 |
Research data only. Not financial advice. Probabilities from public prediction markets.