Federal Reserve Rate Decision Odds — Live Data (Updated every 5 min)
UTC · Kalshi + Polymarket · JSON
Answer: Kalshi implies 35.0% and Polymarket implies 70.45% on comparable macro sentiment (spread 35.45pt).
| Source | Implied yes % |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 35.0% |
| Polymarket | 70.45% |
Current cross-venue spread: 35.45pt (Kalshi 35.0% vs Polymarket 70.45%) — comparable macro sentiment, not 1:1 contracts.
Kalshi markets
| Implied % | Market | Ticker | Yes bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T4.25 | 0.0900 / 0.3500 |
| 39.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T4.00 | 0.1300 / 0.3900 |
| 41.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T3.75 | 0.3400 / 0.3800 |
| 44.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T3.50 | 0.4000 / 0.4400 |
| 66.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T3.25 | 0.5100 / 0.6400 |
| 63.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T3.00 | 0.6000 / 0.6300 |
| 70.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T2.75 | 0.6300 / 0.7000 |
| 73.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T2.50 | 0.6500 / 0.7300 |
| 79.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T2.25 | 0.6900 / 0.7900 |
| 77.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T2.00 | 0.6400 / 0.7700 |
| 96.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T1.75 | 0.6800 / 0.8200 |
| 99.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T1.50 | 0.7000 / 0.7900 |
Research data only. Not financial advice. Probabilities from public prediction markets.