Federal Reserve Rate Decision Odds — Live Data (Updated every 5 min)
UTC · Kalshi + Polymarket · JSON
Answer: Kalshi implies 47.0% and Polymarket implies 88.65% on comparable macro sentiment (spread 41.65pt).
| Source | Implied yes % |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47.0% |
| Polymarket | 88.65% |
Current cross-venue spread: 41.65pt (Kalshi 47.0% vs Polymarket 88.65%) — comparable macro sentiment, not 1:1 contracts.
Kalshi markets
| Implied % | Market | Ticker | Yes bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T4.25 | 0.3000 / 0.4700 |
| 55.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T4.00 | 0.2500 / 0.5500 |
| 61.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T3.75 | 0.2700 / 0.6100 |
| 79.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T3.50 | 0.3000 / 0.7900 |
| 77.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T3.25 | 0.6500 / 0.7700 |
| 79.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T3.00 | 0.7400 / 0.7900 |
| 80.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T2.75 | 0.6800 / 0.8000 |
| 89.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T2.50 | 0.7400 / 0.8900 |
| 88.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T2.25 | 0.7800 / 0.8800 |
| 90.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T2.00 | 0.8300 / 0.9000 |
| 95.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T1.75 | 0.7600 / 0.9500 |
| 95.0% | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? | KXFED-27APR-T1.50 | 0.7700 / 0.9500 |
Research data only. Not financial advice. Probabilities from public prediction markets.