CPI Inflation Prediction Market Odds — Live Data (Updated every 5 min)
UTC · Kalshi + Polymarket · JSON
Answer: Kalshi implies 9.0% and Polymarket implies 0.6% on comparable macro sentiment (spread 8.4pt).
| Source | Implied yes % |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 9.0% |
| Polymarket | 0.6% |
Current cross-venue spread: 8.4pt (Kalshi 9.0% vs Polymarket 0.6%) — comparable macro sentiment, not 1:1 contracts.
Kalshi markets
| Implied % | Market | Ticker | Yes bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in October 2026? | KXCPI-26OCT-T1.0 | 0.0700 / 0.0900 |
| 13.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in October 2026? | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.9 | 0.0600 / 0.1300 |
| 16.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in October 2026? | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.8 | 0.1200 / 0.1600 |
| 29.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in October 2026? | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.7 | 0.1300 / 0.1800 |
| 20.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in October 2026? | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.6 | 0.1400 / 0.2000 |
| 21.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in December 2026? | KXCPI-26DEC-T0.9 | 0.0600 / 0.2100 |
| 22.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in December 2026? | KXCPI-26DEC-T0.8 | 0.0700 / 0.2200 |
| 24.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in December 2026? | KXCPI-26DEC-T0.7 | 0.0500 / 0.2400 |
| 28.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in December 2026? | KXCPI-26DEC-T0.6 | 0.0500 / 0.2800 |
| 37.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in December 2026? | KXCPI-26DEC-T0.5 | 0.1000 / 0.3700 |
| 48.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in December 2026? | KXCPI-26DEC-T0.4 | 0.1600 / 0.4800 |
| 63.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in December 2026? | KXCPI-26DEC-T0.3 | 0.1900 / 0.6300 |
Research data only. Not financial advice. Probabilities from public prediction markets.