CPI Inflation Prediction Market Odds — Live Data (Updated every 5 min)
UTC · Kalshi + Polymarket · JSON
Answer: Kalshi implies 6.0% and Polymarket implies 2.4% on comparable macro sentiment (spread 3.6pt).
| Source | Implied yes % |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 6.0% |
| Polymarket | 2.4% |
Current cross-venue spread: 3.6pt (Kalshi 6.0% vs Polymarket 2.4%) — comparable macro sentiment, not 1:1 contracts.
Kalshi markets
| Implied % | Market | Ticker | Yes bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in August 2026? | KXCPI-26AUG-T1.0 | 0.0000 / 0.0600 |
| 12.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in August 2026? | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.9 | 0.0000 / 0.1200 |
| 18.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in August 2026? | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.8 | 0.0000 / 0.1700 |
| 9.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in August 2026? | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.7 | 0.0100 / 0.0900 |
| 8.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in August 2026? | KXCPI-26AUG-T0.6 | 0.0300 / 0.0800 |
| 38.0% | Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026? | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6 | 0.0300 / 0.3800 |
| 99.0% | Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026? | KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.4 | 0.7000 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in September 2026? | KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.3 | 0.7000 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in September 2026? | KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.2 | 0.7000 / 0.9900 |
| 99.0% | Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in August 2026? | KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.4 | 0.9000 / 0.9900 |
| 98.0% | Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in August 2026? | KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.3 | 0.6900 / 0.9800 |
| 97.0% | Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in August 2026? | KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.2 | 0.7600 / 0.9700 |
Research data only. Not financial advice. Probabilities from public prediction markets.