CPI Inflation Prediction Market Odds — Live Data (Updated every 5 min)

UTC · Kalshi + Polymarket · JSON

Answer: Kalshi implies 6.0% and Polymarket implies 2.4% on comparable macro sentiment (spread 3.6pt).

SourceImplied yes %
Kalshi6.0%
Polymarket2.4%

Current cross-venue spread: 3.6pt (Kalshi 6.0% vs Polymarket 2.4%) — comparable macro sentiment, not 1:1 contracts.

Kalshi markets

Implied %MarketTickerYes bid/ask
6.0%Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in August 2026?KXCPI-26AUG-T1.00.0000 / 0.0600
12.0%Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in August 2026?KXCPI-26AUG-T0.90.0000 / 0.1200
18.0%Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in August 2026?KXCPI-26AUG-T0.80.0000 / 0.1700
9.0%Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in August 2026?KXCPI-26AUG-T0.70.0100 / 0.0900
8.0%Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in August 2026?KXCPI-26AUG-T0.60.0300 / 0.0800
38.0%Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?KXCPI-26SEP-T0.60.0300 / 0.3800
99.0%Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026?KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.40.7000 / 0.9900
99.0%Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in September 2026?KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.30.7000 / 0.9900
99.0%Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in September 2026?KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.20.7000 / 0.9900
99.0%Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in August 2026?KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.40.9000 / 0.9900
98.0%Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in August 2026?KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.30.6900 / 0.9800
97.0%Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in August 2026?KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.20.7600 / 0.9700

Research data only. Not financial advice. Probabilities from public prediction markets.

Paid cross-venue spread API · Agent spread alerts