Bitcoin Prediction Market Odds — Live Data (Updated every 5 min)
UTC · Kalshi + Polymarket · JSON
Answer: Kalshi implies 2.0% and Polymarket implies 0.05% on comparable macro sentiment (spread 1.95pt).
| Source | Implied yes % |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2.0% |
| Polymarket | 0.05% |
Current cross-venue spread: 1.95pt (Kalshi 2.0% vs Polymarket 0.05%) — comparable macro sentiment, not 1:1 contracts.
Kalshi markets
| Implied % | Market | Ticker | Yes bid/ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-T89749.99 | 0.0000 / 0.0200 |
| 1.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-T70250 | 0.0000 / 0.0100 |
| 70.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B89625 | 0.0000 / 0.7000 |
| 70.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B89375 | 0.0000 / 0.7000 |
| 70.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B89125 | 0.0000 / 0.7000 |
| 70.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B88875 | 0.0000 / 0.7000 |
| 70.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B88625 | 0.0000 / 0.7000 |
| 70.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B88375 | 0.0000 / 0.7000 |
| 2.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B88125 | 0.0000 / 0.0200 |
| 2.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B87875 | 0.0000 / 0.0200 |
| 2.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B87625 | 0.0000 / 0.0200 |
| 2.0% | Bitcoin price range on Sep 21, 2026? | KXBTC-26SEP2117-B87375 | 0.0000 / 0.0200 |
Research data only. Not financial advice. Probabilities from public prediction markets.